A Decision Support System to Guide Grower Selection of Optimal Seeding Rates of Wheat Cultivars in Diverse Environments

Abstract

Seeding rate in hard red spring wheat (HRSW; Triticum aestivum L.) production impacts input cost and grain yield. Predicting the optimal seeding rate (OSR) for HRSW cultivars can eliminate the need for costly seeding rate research and growers using OSRs can maximize yield and seeding efficiency. Data were compiled from seeding rate studies conducted in 32 environments in the Northern Plains United States to determine the OSR of HRSW cultivars grown in diverse environments. Twelve cultivars with diverse genetic and phenotypic characteristics were evaluated at five seeding rates in 2013-2015, and nine cultivars were evaluated in 2017-2018. OSR varied among cultivar within environments. Cultivar x environment interactions were explored with the objective of developing a decision support system (DSS) to aid growers in determining the OSR for the cultivar they select, and for the environment in which it is sown. A 10-fold repeated cross-validation of the seeding rate data was used to fit 10 decision tree models and the most robust model was selected based on minimizing the value for model variance. The final decision tree model for predicting OSR of HRSW cultivars in diverse environments was considered the most reliable as bias was minimized by pruning methods, and model variance was acceptable for OSR predictions (RMSE = 1.24). Findings from this model were used to develop the grower DSS for determining OSR dependent on cultivar straw strength (as a measure of lodging resistance), tillering capacity, and yield of the environment. Recommendations for OSR ranged from 3.1 to 4.5 million seeds ha^-1. Growers can benefit from using this DSS by sowing at OSR relative to their average yields; especially when seeding new HRSW cultivars.

Keywords: decision support system; decision tree; maximum yield; modeling; seeding rate; straw strength; tillering capacity.