Revisiting the relationship between traffic accidents, real economic activity and other factors in Spain

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain, using data on accidents, fatalities and injuries from January 1975 to December 2016. Our results show the historical asymmetric cyclical behavior of traffic accidents variables. This relationship is more evident for accidents and injuries, while fatalities have shown a different pattern since 2002. Besides using aggregate data, we have analyzed urban and nonurban accidents separately. We analyze the effect of economic variables, public policy interventions and other potential factors affecting traffic series. Regarding policy interventions, we confirm a permanent reduction in all accident rates associated with the mandatory use of seatbelts on car passengers since 1992. However, the penalty points system introduced in July 2006 has only had temporary effects. We have also shown the effect of economic variables such as Industrial Production Index, gasoline and diesel consumption and registration of new vehicles and, as a novelty, the benefits of using the composite coincident and leading indicators of the Spanish economy.

Keywords: Composite coincident and leading indicators; Time series analysis; Traffic accidents; Unobserved component models.