Accurate knowledge of the live birth rate for cleavage stage embryos is essential to determine an appropriate number of embryos to transfer at once. Results from previous studies lack details needed for practical use. This is a mathematical analysis and model building study of day 3 cleavage stage embryo transfers. A total of 996 embryos were transferred in 274 fresh and 83 frozen embryo transfers. Embryo morphology was divided into 4 groups based on number of cells and fragmentation percentage. Each embryo transfer was modeled as an equation equating the sum of the live birth rates of the transferred embryos to the number of live births that resulted. The least squares solution to the system of embryo transfer equations was determined using linear algebra. This analysis was repeated for ages 35 to 42 years old at oocyte retrieval. The best fit live birth rates per embryo in the age group centered on 35 years old were 29%, 13%, 10%, and 9% for embryos in the 8-cell with ≤ 5% fragmentation, 8-cell with > 5% fragmentation, 9-12 cell, and 6-7 cell groups, respectively. Cleavage stage embryos with fewer than 6 cells on day 3 had very low best fit live birth rates close to 0% at age 39 years and were excluded from the primary analysis to prevent overfitting. These live birth rates can be used with a simple embryo transfer model to predict rates of single and multiple gestation prior to a planned cleavage stage embryo transfer.
Keywords: Cleavage stage; Embryo transfer; In vitro fertilization; Live birth rate; Predictive model.