Ageing and cohort trajectories in mental ill-health: An exploration using multilevel models

PLoS One. 2020 Jul 9;15(7):e0235594. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0235594. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Analyses of health over time must consider the potential impacts of ageing as well as any effects relating to cohort differences. The British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and Understanding Society longitudinal studies are employed to assess trends in mental ill-health over a 26-year period. This analysis uses cross-classified multilevel models in an exploratory, non-parametric approach to evaluate age and cohort effects net of each other. Mental ill-health evidences an initial worsening trend as people age which then reverses and exhibits improvement in late-middle-age, before declining again in the latter stages of life. There were less defined cohort trends. The modelling technique also reveals the relative importance of the temporal contexts in relation to inter- and intra-individual effects on mental ill-health, demonstrating that the ageing and cohort dimensions explain little variation compared to these more dominant within and between influences. Ultimately, we suggest that researchers would benefit from wider use of this exploratory modelling strategy when evaluating underlying health trends and more research is now needed to explore potential explanations of these baseline trajectories.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Aging / physiology*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Humans
  • Mental Disorders / epidemiology*
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical*

Grants and funding

LP is funded by an ESRC PhD studentship in Advanced Quantitative Methods (grant number ES/J50015X/1). DM is supported by a European Research Council grant under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013) Agreement n.615159 (ERC Consolidator Grant DEPRIVEDHOODS, Socio-spatial inequality, deprived neighbourhoods, and neighbourhood effects). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.