Rising temperature and its impact on receptivity to malaria transmission in Europe: A systematic review

Lena Fischer; Nejla Gültekin; Marisa B Kaelin; Jan Fehr; Patricia Schlagenhauf

doi:10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101815

Rising temperature and its impact on receptivity to malaria transmission in Europe: A systematic review

Travel Med Infect Dis. 2020 Jul-Aug:36:101815. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101815. Epub 2020 Jul 3.

Authors

Lena Fischer¹, Nejla Gültekin², Marisa B Kaelin³, Jan Fehr⁴, Patricia Schlagenhauf⁵

Affiliations

¹ Department of Public and Global Health, MilMedBiol Competence Centre, Institute for Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
² Centre of Competence for Military and Disaster Medicine, Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport DDPS, Swiss Armed Forces, Switzerland.
³ Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University Hospital Zurich & Department of Public and Global Health, Institute for Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
⁴ University of Zurich Centre for Travel Medicine, WHO Collaborating Centre for Travellers' Health, Department of Public and Global Health, Institute for Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention, Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University Hospital Zurich, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
⁵ University of Zurich Centre for Travel Medicine, WHO Collaborating Centre for Travellers' Health, Department of Public and Global Health, MilMedBiol Competence Centre, Institute for Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. Electronic address: patricia.schlagenhauf@uzh.ch.

PMID: 32629138
DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101815

Abstract

Background: Malaria is one of the most life-threatening vector-borne diseases globally. Recent autochthonous cases registered in several European countries have raised awareness regarding the threat of malaria reintroduction to Europe. An increasing number of imported malaria cases today occur due to international travel and migrant flows from malaria-endemic countries. The cumulative factors of the presence of competent vectors, favourable climatic conditions and evidence of increasing temperatures might lead to the re-emergence of malaria in countries where the infection was previously eliminated.

Methods: We performed a systematic literature review following PRISMA guidelines. We searched for original articles focusing on rising temperature and the receptivity to malaria transmission in Europe. We evaluated the quality of the selected studies using a standardised tool.

Results: The search resulted in 1'999 articles of possible relevance and after screening we included 10 original research papers in the quantitative analysis for the systematic review. With further increasing temperatures studies predicted a northward spread of the occurrence of Anopheles mosquitoes and an extension of seasonality, enabling malaria transmission for annual periods up to 6 months in the years 2051-2080. Highest vector stability and receptivity were predicted in Southern and South-Eastern European areas. Anopheles atroparvus, the main potential malaria vector in Europe, might play an important role under changing conditions favouring malaria transmission.

Conclusion: The receptivity of Europe for malaria transmission will increase as a result of rising temperature unless socioeconomic factors remain favourable and appropriate public health measures are implemented. Our systematic review serves as an evidence base for future preventive measures.

Keywords: 1.9 climate change; Anopheles; Breeding; Europe; Global warming; Incubation; Malaria; Plasmodium; Rising temperature.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Systematic Review

MeSH terms

Animals
Anopheles*
Europe
Humans
Malaria* / transmission
Mosquito Vectors
Temperature