Vehicle emissions have become a major source of air pollution in urban cities. The vehicle emission inventory of the Liaoning province from 2000 to 2030 was established based on the COPERT model and ArcGIS, and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of six pollutants (CO, NMVOC, NOx, PM10, SO2, and CO2) were analyzed. Taking 2016 as the base year, eight scenarios of control measures were designed based on scenario analysis, and the effects of different scenarios on emission reduction were assessed. Results showed that during 2000-2016, CO, NMVOC, NOx, and PM10 emissions at first exhibited increasing trends, after which they decreased. Emissions of SO2 exhibited fluctuating trends, while the emissions of CO2 showed a continuous increase. Passenger cars and motorcycles were the main contributors of CO and NMVOC emissions. Heavy-duty trucks and buses were the main sources of NOx and PM10 emissions. Passenger cars were the major contributors to SO2 and CO2 emissions. Vehicle emissions were significantly higher in the central and southern in Liaoning Province. At the city level, vehicle emissions were mainly concentrated in Shenyang and Dalian. The scenario analysis showed that the implementation of stricter vehicle emission standards can enhance the emission reduction effect. Moreover, accelerating the implementation of new emission standards was beneficial to reduce emissions. The integrated scenario would achieve the maximum emission reduction, with reduction rates of CO, NMVOC, NOx, PM10, CO2, and SO2 at 30.7%, 14.3%, 81.7%, 29.4%, 12.3%, and 12.1%, respectively.
Keywords: COPERT; Liaoning; emission inventory; scenario analysis; vehicle pollution.