Effective bacterial infection eradication requires not only potent antibacterial agents but also proper dosing strategies. Current practices generally utilize point estimates of the effects of therapeutic agents, even though the actual kinetics of exposure are much more complex and relevant. Here, we use a full time course of the observed in vitro effects to develop a semimechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for eravacycline against multiple Gram-negative bacterial pathogens. This model incorporates components such as pharmacokinetics, bacterial life cycle, and drug effects to quantitatively describe the time course of antibacterial killing and the emergence of resistance. Model discrimination was performed by comparing goodness of fit, convergence diagnostics, and objective function values. Models were validated by assessing their abilities to describe bacterial count time courses in visual predictive checks. The final model describes 576 bacterial counts (expressed in log10 CFU per milliliter) from 144 in vitro time-kill experiments with low residual error and high precision. We characterize antibacterial susceptibility as a function of the MIC and adaptive resistance. In doing so, we show that the MIC is proportional to initial susceptibility at 0 h and the development of resistance over the course of 16 h. Altogether, this model may be useful in supporting dose selection, since it incorporates in vitro pharmacodynamics and clinically observed individual drug susceptibilities.
Keywords: in silico; in vitro; modeling; pharmacodynamics; pharmacology; semimechanistic.