Comparing COVID-19 and the 1918-19 influenza pandemics in the United Kingdom

Daihai He; Shi Zhao; Yingke Li; Peihua Cao; Daozhou Gao; Yijun Lou; Lin Yang

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.075

Comparing COVID-19 and the 1918-19 influenza pandemics in the United Kingdom

Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Sep:98:67-70. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.075. Epub 2020 Jun 26.

Authors

Daihai He¹, Shi Zhao², Yingke Li³, Peihua Cao⁴, Daozhou Gao⁵, Yijun Lou⁶, Lin Yang⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk.
² JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China.
³ College of Mathematics and Physics, Xinjiang Agriculture University, Urumqi, China.
⁴ Clinical Research Center, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
⁵ College of Mathematics and Science, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China.
⁶ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
⁷ School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: l.yang@polyu.edu.hk.

Abstract

We compared the COVID-19 and 1918-19 influenza pandemics in the United Kingdom. We found that the ongoing COVID-19 wave of infection matched the major wave of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic surprisingly well, with both reaching similar magnitudes (in terms of estimated weekly new infections) and spending the same duration with over five cases per 1000 inhabitants over the previous two months. We also discussed the similarities in epidemiological characteristics between these two pandemics.

Keywords: 1918–19 influenza; COVID-19; Multiple waves; United Kingdom; Years of life lost.

Publication types

Comparative Study

MeSH terms

Betacoronavirus*
COVID-19
Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
Humans
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype
Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919*
Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
SARS-CoV-2
United Kingdom / epidemiology