Projecting landscape impacts from energy development is essential to land management decisions. We forecast landscape alteration resulting from oil and gas well-pad construction across the economically important Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, USA, by projecting current landscape trends through 2050. We modeled three landscape-impact scenarios (low, medium, and high) using recent (2008-2017) trends in well-pad construction and energy production. The results of low-, medium-, and high-impact scenarios suggest that ~60,000, ~180,000, and ~430,000 new well pads could be constructed, potentially causing ~1000, ~2800, and ~6700 km2 of new direct landscape alteration. Almost two-thirds of all new well pads will be constructed within the geologic boundaries of the Delaware and Midland Basins. This translates into a 40, 120, and 300% increase in direct landscape alteration compared with direct alteration from existing well pads. We found that indirect effects (from edges) could increase by twofold, and that the ratio between indirect and direct alteration could decline by half as alteration intensifies and overlaps with existing alteration. The Chihuahuan Desert occupies the largest portion of the study area, and is projected to experience the largest area of alteration from future well-pad construction in the Permian Basin; the degree of direct alteration could increase by 70, 200, and 500% in this desert region, under low-, medium-, and high-impact scenarios. These scenarios can be used to design proactive conservation strategies to reduce landscape impacts from future oil and gas development.
Keywords: Big Bend region; Energy projections; Land-use change; Landscape impacts; Oil and gas development; Permian Basin.