A novel mathematics model of covid-19 with fractional derivative. Stability and numerical analysis

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Sep:138:110006. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110006. Epub 2020 Jun 17.

Abstract

a mathematical model depicting the spread of covid-19 epidemic and implementation of population covid-19 intervention in Italy. The model has 8 components leading to system of 8 ordinary differential equations. In this paper, we investigate the model using the concept of fractional differential operator. A numerical method based on the Lagrange polynomial was used to solve the system equations depicting the spread of COVID-19. A detailed investigation of stability including reproductive number using the next generation matrix, and the Lyapunov were presented in detail. Numerical simulations are depicted for various fractional orders.

Keywords: Covid-19 model; Lagrange polynomial; Non-local operators; Reproductivity numbers.