COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil: Where are we at?

Abstract

Objetive: To analyze the trends of COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020 by Federal Units (FU).

Method: Ecological time-series based on cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 from March 11 to May 12. Joinpoint regression models were applied to identify points of inflection in COVID-19 trends, considering the days since the 50^th confirmed case as time unit.

Results: Brazil reached its 50^th confirmed case of COVID-19 in 11 March 2020 and, 63 days after that, on May 12, 177,589 cases had been confirmed. The trends for all regions and FU are upward. In the last segment, from the 31^st to the 63^rd day, Brazil presented a daily percentage change (DPC) of 7.3% (95%CI= 7.2;7.5). For the country the average daily percentage change (ADPC) was 14.2% (95%CI: 13.8;14.5). The highest ADPC values were found in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions.

Conclusions: In summary, our results show that all FUs in Brazil present upward trends of COVID-19. In some FUs, the slowdown in DPC in the last segment must be considered with caution. Each FU is at a different stage of the pandemic and, therefore, non-pharmacological measures should be adopted accordingly.

Keywords: Brazil; COVID-19; Epidemiology; Joinpoint; Times series.