Tropical and subtropical dry forests make up the world's largest terrestrial ecosystem. However, these forests have been used to establish several productive activities, such as growing crops, rearing livestock, and using the forest resources, due to their ease of access and climatic conditions, which has led to this ecosystem becoming highly threatened. Therefore, this research assessed the effects of anthropogenic pressures and a number of abiotic variables on natural regeneration in dry forests in the Tumbesian region by addressing three research questions: (a) What is the status of natural regeneration in terms of abundance and diversity? (b) Does livestock grazing and the anthropogenic pressure affect the abundance and diversity of natural regeneration? (c) Does seasonality or grazing have the greatest influence on the regeneration dynamics? Data were obtained from 72 samples (36 fenced and 36 unfenced) during five surveys spanning a 2-year period, and the seedling abundance, mortality, recruitment, species richness and diversity were evaluated using linear mixed models. Natural regeneration was most positively affected by rainy season precipitation, but soil conditions also played an important role. Short-term fences had a major effect on reducing mortality but did not improve the abundance or diversity, whereas cattle grazing significantly affected the abundance of seedlings.