Spatial-temporal characteristics of AIDS incidences in Mainland China

Abstract

Object: Revealed the spatial-temporal patterns of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidences in Mainland China.

Methods: Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique was applied to analyze the major spatial distribution modes and the temporal changes of AIDS incidences in Mainland China during 2002-2017.

Results: The annual average AIDS incidences increased from 0.06 per 100 000 in 2002 to 4.15 per 100 000 in 2017, with an annual average increase of 0.31 per 100 000. The southwest regions were high-incidence areas, as well as Xinjiang province in the northwest. There were two typical spatial modes. EOF 1 represented an isodirectional spatial pattern that the incidences were relatively high in general, and the fluctuation ranges were relatively high in the southwest and northeast. EOF 2 represented a reverse spatial pattern that the incidences were relatively high (or low) in Guangxi, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Shanghai, and Henan, yet were relatively low (or high) in the remaining regions.

Conclusion: The AIDS incidences in Mainland China were relatively low during 2002-2010, yet were kept in a relatively high level since 2012. The prevention and control of AIDS need further development, especially in the southwest regions.

Keywords: empirical orthogonal function; spatial mode; spatial-temporal decomposition; temporal coefficient.