Object: To analyze the factors influencing surgical site infection (SSI) after pancreaticoduodenectomy and to establish a scoring system for predicting such infections. Methods: Patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy in the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from January 2015 to March 2019 were divided randomly into a model group and a test group in a proportion of 3:1. According to whether an SSI occurred after operation, the model group was divided into an incision-infection group and a non-infection group. Univariable analysis and multivariable regression analysis were used to analyze factors related to post-operative incision infection and to establish a clinical predictive scoring system. The scoring system was evaluated for the test group. Results: A total of 236 patients, 177 in the model group and 59 in the test group, were included. In the model group, univariable and logistic regression analysis showed that tumor nature (benign versus malignant), post-operative albumin concentration, pancreatic fistula formation, post-operative cough, and peri-operative blood transfusion were the independent risk factors for incision infection. Then we established a clinical predictive scoring system. In the test group, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of the system was 0.768 (p < 0.001, with sensitivity = 59.1% and specificity = 94.6%). Conclusion: The scoring system had good clinical prediction ability and high specificity, so it was worth using in the clinic.
Keywords: clinical predictive model; pancreaticoduodenectomy; surgical site infection.