Timing of antiviral treatment initiation is critical to reduce SARS-CoV-2 viral load

medRxiv [Preprint]. 2020 Jun 21:2020.04.04.20047886. doi: 10.1101/2020.04.04.20047886.

Abstract

We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than 2 logs, drug efficacy needs to be greater than 80% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 50% could be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 20-70% efficacy. They may help control virus if administered very early, but may not have a major effect in severe patients.

Publication types

  • Preprint