This paper presents a prediction method and mathematical model based on experimental results for the change in pore structure of cement-based materials due to environmental conditions. It focuses on frost damage risk to cement-based materials such as mortar. Mortar specimens are prepared using water, ordinary Portland cement, and sand and the pore structure is evaluated using mercury intrusion porosimetry. New formulas are proposed to describe the relationship between the pore structure change and the modified maturity and to predict the durability factor. A quantitative prediction model is established from a modified maturity function considering the influences of environmental factors like temperature and relative humidity. With this model, the frost resistance of cement-based materials can be predicted based on weather data. Using the prediction model and climate data, a new distribution map of frost damage risk is created. It is found that summer weather significantly affects frost resistance, owing to the change in pore structure of cement-based mortar. The model provides a valuable tool for predicting frost damage risk based on weather data and is significant for further research.
Keywords: cement-based materials; durability factor; frost resistance; maturity; mercury intrusion porosimetry; pore structure.