Precipitation extremes in recent decades impact cattle populations at the global and national scales

Abstract

Cattle populations are one of the most important global ecological drivers. The global cattle population tripled during the past century, leading to large impacts on nutrient cycling, greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss. Nonetheless, their populations have not increased uniformly through the last seven decades (1961-2018), with large unexplained variation between years. We hypothesized a main driver for such fluctuation was climate variability and thus examined global and national level relationships between cattle population growth and precipitation anomalies for the period 1961-2017. We showed that the variation in the global cattle population growth rate was related to precipitation anomalies following a distinctive parabolic relationship, where extreme wetness or dryness decreased population growth. When the analysis was downscaled to the national level, we found the strength of such relationship to be determined by the background climate and management intensity. Countries in drier climates and with less intensive cattle management showed the largest susceptibility to extreme annual precipitation. We propose a general model to explain the relationship between precipitation extremes and cattle populations at multiple scales, based on ecological processes applicable to grazing systems.

Keywords: Cattle management intensity; Climate change; Extreme precipitation events; Global cattle populations; Global land management; Multi-scalar model; Precipitation anomalies.