Methodology for forecast and control of coastal harmful algal blooms by embedding a compound eutrophication index into the ecological risk index

Guohong Lin; Xuefeng Xu; Ping Wang; Shengkang Liang; Yanbin Li; Ying Su; Keqiang Li; Xiulin Wang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139404

Methodology for forecast and control of coastal harmful algal blooms by embedding a compound eutrophication index into the ecological risk index

Sci Total Environ. 2020 Sep 15:735:139404. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139404. Epub 2020 May 13.

Authors

Guohong Lin¹, Xuefeng Xu², Ping Wang³, Shengkang Liang², Yanbin Li², Ying Su⁴, Keqiang Li⁵, Xiulin Wang²

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Technology, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; Material Science and Engineering College, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266061, China.
² Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Technology, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China.
³ Business School, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266061, China.
⁴ Environmental Science and Engineering Department, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China.
⁵ Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Technology, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China. Electronic address: likeqiang@ouc.edu.cn.

PMID: 32473442
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139404

Abstract

Harmful algae bloom (HAB) is a major global ecological hazard and is a serious problem in the Bohai Sea. There have been few successful controls of HABs associated with HAB accurate predictions due to a lack of link between ecological risks and control measures. A methodology is proposed that embeds the compound eutrophication index (CEI) into an ecological risk index (ERI) for HAB prediction, which can define critical factors associated with measures of HAB control. CEI can be calculated by means of a function with 15 control elements. These are multiplied with the occurrence probability and ecosystem vulnerability to HAB events to calculate the ERI of HAB. Based on the results of CEI and ERI, it has experienced eutrophication and has been at a high-risk state since 1989 in the Bohai Sea. There is good correlation between CEI and chlorophyll a concentration, and HAB risk evaluation in accordance with ERI embedded CEI is considerable reliability in both location and time in the Bohai Sea. The ERI value averages 24% ± 35% with peak values (73% ± 4.3%) in summer, and high values (at the level of grade III of ERI, 6%) are mostly in Bohai Bay, Laizhou Bay, Liaodong Bay and the coastal sea waters of Qinhuangdao city. The contribution of terrigenous pollutant emission and concentration effects to the ERI is 63%, with reclamation and hydrodynamic effects accounting for 22%, and runoff and sediment effects accounting for 15%. Thus, actions associated with terrigenous pollutant emission/concentration would be more effective than other measures in prevention and control of HAB.

Keywords: Control elements; Ecological risk index; Eutrophication index; Harmful algae bloom; Prevention and control technical measure.

MeSH terms

Chlorophyll A*
Ecosystem
Eutrophication
Harmful Algal Bloom*
Reproducibility of Results
Seawater

Substances

Chlorophyll A