Rationale: The RECIST guideline defines four categories of response to treatment for cancer patients according to post-baseline changes in tumor burden, hence ignoring disease history. However, if left untreated, tumors grow exponentially, implying that pretreatment changes in tumor size are key to thoroughly assess efficacy. We present a model-based approach to estimate the rates of changes in tumor mass, before and after treatment onset.
Methods: Sixty-eight patients were eligible for the analysis of tumor size data from a Phase 1 study evaluating the effect of emactuzumab. In addition to tumor size measured at baseline and every six weeks during treatment, a pre-baseline measurement was gathered for each patient. A longitudinal regression model was used to estimate the rates of tumor size change before and after treatment onset.
Results: The median pre-treatment tumor growth exponential rate was equal to 0.022 month-1, corresponding to a tumor size doubling time of 4 months, and the on-treatment median tumor shrinkage exponential rate was equal to 0.001 month-1. Among sixteen patients categorized as stable disease per RECIST, only five had similar slopes before and after treatment while nine actually improved. One patient in particular had a therapeutically induced stabilization of the disease.
Conclusion: Our analysis emphasizes the importance of collecting pre-baseline scans to distinguish therapeutically induced stable disease from cases where the tumor growth is not perturbed by treatment.