Identification of high-risk patients for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sustained virological responses (SVR) is necessary to define candidates for long-term surveillance. In this study, we examined whether serum markers after 1 year of SVR could predict subsequent HCC development. Total 734 chronic hepatitis C patients without a history of HCC who achieved SVR with direct-acting antivirals were included. The regular surveillance for HCC started from 24 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR24). Factors at SVR24 and 1 year after SVR24 were analyzed for predicting HCC development. During the mean observation period of 19.7 ± 10 months, 24 patients developed HCC. At SVR24, Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive mac-2 binding protein (WFA±M2BP) ≥ 1.85 and α-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 6.0 ng/mL were independent factors of HCC development. However, at 1 year after SVR24, WFA±M2BP ≥ 1.85 was associated with subsequent HCC development (hazard ratio: 23.5, 95% confidence interval: 2.68-205) but not AFP. Among patients with WFA±M2BP ≥ 1.85 at SVR24, 42% had WFA±M2BP < 1.85 at 1 year after SVR24 (WFA±M2BP declined group). Subsequent HCC development was significantly lower in the declined group than in the non-declined group (1 year HCC rate: 0% vs. 9.4%, p = 0.04). In conclusion, WFA±M2BP but not AFP could identify high and no-risk cases of HCC at 1 year after SVR. Therefore, it was useful as a real-time monitoring tool to identify the candidates for continuous surveillance for HCC.
Keywords: AFP; WFA±M2BP; chronic hepatitis C; direct-acting antivirals; hepatocellular carcinoma.