Drought index prediction using advanced fuzzy logic model: Regional case study over Kumaon in India

PLoS One. 2020 May 21;15(5):e0233280. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0233280. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

A new version of the fuzzy logic model, called the co-active neuro fuzzy inference system (CANFIS), is introduced for predicting standardized precipitation index (SPI). Multiple scales of drought information at six meteorological stations located in Uttarakhand State, India, are used. Different lead times of SPI were computed for prediction, including 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months, with inputs abstracted by autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial-ACF (PACF) analysis at 5% significance level. The proposed CANFIS model was validated against two models: classical artificial intelligence model (e.g., multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN)) and regression model (e.g., multiple linear regression (MLR)). Several performance evaluation metrices (root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, coefficient of correlation, and Willmott index), and graphical visualizations (scatter plot and Taylor diagram) were computed for the evaluation of model performance. Results indicated that the CANFIS model predicted the SPI better than the other models and prediction results were different for different meteorological stations. The proposed model can build a reliable expert intelligent system for predicting meteorological drought at multi-time scales and decision making for remedial schemes to cope with meteorological drought at the study stations and can help to maintain sustainable water resources management.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Conservation of Water Resources
  • Droughts* / statistics & numerical data
  • Environmental Monitoring
  • Fuzzy Logic*
  • India
  • Linear Models
  • Machine Learning
  • Meteorological Concepts
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Neural Networks, Computer
  • Water Resources

Grants and funding

This research was funded by the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, grant number 20200027-001.