The basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan is about to die out, how about the rest of the World?

Bootan Rahman; Evar Sadraddin; Annamaria Porreca

doi:10.1002/rmv.2111

The basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan is about to die out, how about the rest of the World?

Rev Med Virol. 2020 Jul;30(4):e2111. doi: 10.1002/rmv.2111. Epub 2020 May 19.

Authors

Bootan Rahman¹, Evar Sadraddin², Annamaria Porreca³

Affiliations

¹ Mathematics Unit, School of Science and Engineering, University of Kurdistan Hewlêr (UKH), Erbil, Iraq.
² Mathematics Department, College of Science, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Erbil, Iraq.
³ Department of Economic Studies, University G. d'Annunzio Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy.

Abstract

The virologically confirmed cases of a new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the world are rapidly increasing, leading epidemiologists and mathematicians to construct transmission models that aim to predict the future course of the current pandemic. The transmissibility of a virus is measured by the basic reproduction number ( R₀ ), which measures the average number of new cases generated per typical infectious case. This review highlights the articles reporting rigorous estimates and determinants of COVID-19 R₀ for the most affected areas. Moreover, the mean of all estimated R₀ with median and interquartile range is calculated. According to these articles, the basic reproduction number of the virus epicentre Wuhan has now declined below the important threshold value of 1.0 since the disease emerged. Ongoing modelling will inform the transmission rates seen in the new epicentres outside of China, including Italy, Iran and South Korea.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARA-CoV-2; pandemic; the basic reproduction number ( R0).

Publication types

Review
Comment

MeSH terms

Basic Reproduction Number
Betacoronavirus
COVID-19
China
Coronavirus Infections*
Coronavirus*
Humans
Pandemics*
Pneumonia, Viral*
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus*