Background: Ischemic stroke is an acute cardiovascular disease with high disability and mortality. Extreme precipitation has been reported to increase the risk of some cardiovascular diseases and further increase the burden of disease. At present, no studies have evaluated the relationship between extreme precipitation and ischemic stroke.
Objective: The aim of this study was to quantitatively analyze the association between extreme precipitation and ischemic stroke hospitalizations and further explore disease burden and its associated susceptible population.
Methods: In this study, we used Poisson generalized linear model combined with distributed lag nonlinear model to investigate the relationship between extreme precipitation (≥95th percentile) and ischemic stroke and further explored the lag effect of extreme precipitation for population with different individual characteristics.
Results: Ischemic stroke hospitalizations were significantly associated with extreme precipitation. The single-day effect occurred on lag 3 (RR = 1.040, 95% CI: 1.058-1.073) lasted until lag 8 (RR = 1.036, 95% CI: 1.004-1.068). The cumulative lag effects of extreme precipitation on ischemic stroke lasted six days (lag 6-lag 11). Male and people aged ≥65 years were more sensitive to extreme precipitation. The attributable fraction (AF) and numbers (AN) of extreme precipitation on hospitalizations for ischemic stroke were 1.38% and 236.4, respectively.
Conclusion: Our study suggested that extreme precipitation may increase the risk of hospital admissions for ischemic stroke, emphasizing the need for society and families to pay more attention to male and people aged ≥65 years.
Keywords: Attributable risk; Extreme precipitation; Ischemic stroke; Time series analysis.
Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.