Estimating a novel stochastic model for within-field disease dynamics of banana bunchy top virus via approximate Bayesian computation

PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 May 18;16(5):e1007878. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007878. eCollection 2020 May.

Abstract

The Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV) is one of the most economically important vector-borne banana diseases throughout the Asia-Pacific Basin and presents a significant challenge to the agricultural sector. Current models of BBTV are largely deterministic, limited by an incomplete understanding of interactions in complex natural systems, and the appropriate identification of parameters. A stochastic network-based Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model has been created which simulates the spread of BBTV across the subsections of a banana plantation, parameterising nodal recovery, neighbouring and distant infectivity across summer and winter. Findings from posterior results achieved through Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to approximate Bayesian computation suggest seasonality in all parameters, which are influenced by correlated changes in inspection accuracy, temperatures and aphid activity. This paper demonstrates how the model may be used for monitoring and forecasting of various disease management strategies to support policy-level decision making.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Babuvirus / genetics
  • Babuvirus / physiology*
  • Bayes Theorem*
  • DNA, Viral / genetics
  • Models, Biological
  • Musa / virology*
  • Stochastic Processes*

Substances

  • DNA, Viral

Grants and funding

A.V received funding by the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS) and the Queensland University of Technology under grant number CE140100049. K.M was supported by an ARC Laureate Fellowship under grant number FL150100150. C.D was supported by the ARC Discovery Project and the Queensland University of Technology under grant number DP200102101. A.M’s role in this paper was self-funded. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.