Estimates of over-time trends in incidence and mortality of testicular cancer from 1990 to 2030

Qiliang Cai; Yegang Chen; Dingrong Zhang; Jiancheng Pan; Zunke Xie; Chenjie Xu; Shu Li; Xinyu Zhang; Ying Gao; Jie Hou; Xuemei Guo; Xiaodong Zhou; Baoshuai Zhang; Fei Ma; Wei Zhang; Guiting Lin; Zhongcheng Xin; Yuanjie Niu; Yaogang Wang

doi:10.21037/tau.2020.02.22

Estimates of over-time trends in incidence and mortality of testicular cancer from 1990 to 2030

Transl Androl Urol. 2020 Apr;9(2):182-195. doi: 10.21037/tau.2020.02.22.

Authors

Qiliang Cai^{1

2}, Yegang Chen¹, Dingrong Zhang¹, Jiancheng Pan¹, Zunke Xie¹, Chenjie Xu², Shu Li², Xinyu Zhang², Ying Gao³, Jie Hou⁴, Xuemei Guo⁵, Xiaodong Zhou¹, Baoshuai Zhang⁶, Fei Ma⁷, Wei Zhang¹, Guiting Lin⁸, Zhongcheng Xin^{1

9}, Yuanjie Niu¹, Yaogang Wang²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Urology, the Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin Institute of Urology, Tianjin 300211, China.
² School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300070, China.
³ Department of Health Management, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin 300052, China.
⁴ School of Basic Medical Sciences, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300070, China.
⁵ Library of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300070, China.
⁶ Scientific Research Department, the Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300070, China.
⁷ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300070, China.
⁸ Knuppe Molecular Urology Laboratory, Department of Urology, School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
⁹ Andrology Center, Peking University First Hospital, Peking University, Beijing 100034, China.

Abstract

Background: This study aims to explore and project the temporal trends in incidence and mortality of testicular cancer. Moreover, it can provide theoretical guidance for the rational allocation of health resources.

Methods: This study analyzed existing data on testicular cancer morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and predicted time-varying trends of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) from 2017 to 2030 in different ages, regions and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile sub-groups.

Result: Globally, numbers of testicular cancer cases in 2016 [66,833; 95% uncertainty interval (UI), 64,487-69,736] are 1.8 times larger than in 1990 (37,231; 95% UI, 36,116-38,515). The testicular cancer-related death cases increased slightly from 8,394 (95% UI, 7,980-8,904) in 1990 to 8,651 (95% UI, 8,292-9,027) in 2016. In aspect of ASIR, the data showed an up-trend from 0.74 (95% UI, 0.72-0.77) in 1990 to 0.88 (95% UI, 0.85-0.92) in 2016. The ASDR of testicular cancer declined from 0.18 (95% UI, 0.17-0.19) in 1990 to 0.12 (95% UI, 0.11-0.12) in 2016. From 2017 to 2030, predictions of trends in testicular cancer indicate that the ASIRs of most SDI countries are rising, but the ASDRs trends in testicular cancer will decrease.

Conclusions: By analyzing the available and reliable data in different ages, regions and SDI, this study shows a significant upward trend in incidence and a slow upward trend in mortality of testicular cancer from 1990 to 2016, and simultaneously, predicts the increase of ASIR and the downward trend of ASDR in 2017-2030.

Keywords: Testicular cancer; incidence; mortality; projection; trend.