Human papilloma virus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is an independent tumour type with regard to cellular, biological, and clinical features. The use of non-invasive biomarkers such as circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) may be relevant in early diagnosis and eventually improve the outcomes of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Genome-wide discovery using RNA sequencing and reduced representation bisulfite sequencing yielded 21 candidates for methylation-targeted genes. A verification study (252 HNSCC patients) using quantitative methylation-specific PCR (Q-MSP) identified 10 genes (ATP2A1, CALML5, DNAJC5G, GNMT, GPT, LY6D, LYNX1, MAL, MGC16275, and MRGPRF) that showed a significant increase recurrence in methylation groups with OPC. Further study on ctDNA using Q-MSP in HPV-associated OPC showed that three genes (CALML5, DNAJC5G, and LY6D) had a high predictive ability as emerging biomarkers for a validation set, each capable of discriminating between the plasma of the patients from healthy individuals. Among the 42 ctDNA samples, methylated CALML5, DNAJC5G, and LY6D were observed in 31 (73.8%), 19 (45.2%), and 19 (45.2%) samples, respectively. Among pre-treatment ctDNA samples, methylated CALML5, DNAJC5G, and LY6D were observed in 8/8 (100%), 7/8 (87.5%), and 7/8 (87.5%) samples, respectively. Methylated CALML5, DNAJC5G, and LY6D were found in 2/8 (25.0%), 0/8 (0%), and 1/8 (12.5%) of the final samples in the series, respectively. Here, we present the relationship between the methylation status of three specific genes and cancer recurrence for risk classification of HPV-associated OPC cases. In conclusion, ctDNA analysis has the potential to aid in determining patient prognosis and real-time surveillance for disease recurrences and serves as an alternative method of screening for HPV-associated OPC.