Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

Euro Surveill. 2020 May;25(18):2000632. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632.

Abstract

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000-173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220-319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000-797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus disease 2019; intensive care unit; mathematical model; reproduction number; surveillance.

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • COVID-19 Testing
  • Clinical Laboratory Techniques
  • Coronavirus / isolation & purification*
  • Coronavirus Infections / diagnosis*
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
  • Coronavirus Infections / virology
  • Critical Care / statistics & numerical data*
  • Disease Notification / statistics & numerical data*
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Epidemiological Monitoring
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pandemics
  • Patient Admission / statistics & numerical data*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / diagnosis*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / virology
  • Population Surveillance
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / diagnosis
  • Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / epidemiology
  • Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / transmission*
  • Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / virology
  • United Kingdom / epidemiology