Climate change patterns in precipitation over Spain using CORDEX projections for 2021-2050

M N Lorenzo; I Alvarez

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138024

Climate change patterns in precipitation over Spain using CORDEX projections for 2021-2050

Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jun 25:723:138024. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138024. Epub 2020 Mar 18.

Authors

M N Lorenzo¹, I Alvarez²

Affiliations

¹ Environmental Physics Laboratory (EphysLab), CIM-UVIGO, Universidade de Vigo, Edificio Campus da Auga, 32004 Ourense, Spain. Electronic address: nlorenzo@uvigo.es.
² Environmental Physics Laboratory (EphysLab), CIM-UVIGO, Universidade de Vigo, Edificio Campus da Auga, 32004 Ourense, Spain; CESAM, Departamento de Física, Universidade de Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal. Electronic address: ialvarez@uvigo.es.

PMID: 32392673
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138024

Abstract

This work presents an analysis of the climate change scenarios in some extreme precipitation indices over Spain using simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project. Change projections of precipitation are evaluated for the near future (2021-2050) relatively to a reference past climate (1971-2000). Projections of annual precipitation show a general decrease in almost the whole region except over the central area where positive changes are detected due to a significant increase in winter. For consecutive wet days, an annual decrease is also projected over the country attributable to a significant decrease mainly observed in spring and to a lesser extent in winter. On the other hand, consecutive dry days are projected to be higher overall as a result of significant increases in spring, summer and autumn. Positive changes are also projected for the maximum daily precipitation during winter and autumn.

Keywords: CORDEX; Extreme precipitation indices; Spain; Warming scenarios.