Estimating offshore exposure to oil spill impacts based on a statistical forecast model

Abstract

A statistical oil spill risk forecast model in support of emergency response and environmental risk assessment is presented by combing the deterministic model, probabilistic strategy and frequency estimation. When applied to evaluate various potential spill sources (oil port, fairway, anchorage and pipeline) in the Zhoushan offshore area, the model provides the probability of slick spatial position, oil slick thickness, and exposure duration of floating slick. An oil spill risk map is generated after integrating multiple spill sources, which is a powerful tool for identifying high-risk areas and developing contingency plan. Impact scope and damage degree vary among different sources because of special local topographical, hydrological, and meteorological conditions, where generally exists high pollution intensity of point-source and wide range of line-source. Huge Changjiang River runoff prevents coastal sea in the north from being contaminated by spilled oil from the southern Zhoushan offshore area.

Keywords: Oil spill; Risk assessment; Statistical model; Zhoushan offshore area.