This study evaluates trends in workforce supply compared with those in the volume of service delivery (output) for basic clinical care (CC) and public health (PH) services from 2009 to 2017 in China. A cross-sectional survey (2018) was combined with retrospective data (2009-2017) from 785 primary care (PC) facilities in six provinces. Measures for the output of clinical care and of public health services were aggregated into a single (weighted) index for both service profiles. The output-workforce relationship was measured by its ratio. Latent class growth analysis and logistic regression analysis were applied to classify trajectories and determine associations with facility-level, geographic, and economic characteristics. From 2009 to 2017, the proportion of PC to overall healthcare workforce decreased from 24.25% to 18.57%; the proportion of PH to PC providers at PC facilities increased from 23.6% to 29.5%, while the proportion of PH output increased from 44.3% to 65.9%. Four trajectories of the output-workforce relationship were identified for CC, and five trajectories for PH services of which 85.3% of the facilities showed initially increasing and then slightly decreasing trends. Geographic characteristics impacted different trajectories. The PC workforce falls behind hospital workforce. The expansion in workload of PH services is unbalanced with that of workforce.
Keywords: China; latent class growth analysis; output; primary care; workforce.