Degree day models to forecast the seasonal phenology of Drosophila suzukii in tart cherry orchards in the Midwest U.S

PLoS One. 2020 Apr 24;15(4):e0227726. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227726. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Spotted-wing drosophila, Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura) (Diptera: Drosophilidae), is an invasive economic pest of soft-skinned and stone fruit across the globe. Our study establishes both a predictive generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), and a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) of the dynamic seasonal phenology of D. suzukii based on four years of adult monitoring trap data in Wisconsin tart cherry orchards collected throughout the growing season. The models incorporate year, field site, relative humidity, and degree days (DD); and relate these factors to trap catch. The GLMM estimated a coefficient of 2.21 for DD/1000, meaning for every increment of 1000 DD, trap catch increases by roughly 9 flies. The GAMM generated a curve based on a cubic regression smoothing function of DD which approximates critical DD points of first adult D. suzukii detection at 1276 DD, above average field populations beginning at 2019 DD, and peak activity at 3180 DD. By incorporating four years of comprehensive seasonal phenology data from the same locations, we introduce robust models capable of using DD to forecast changing adult D. suzukii populations in the field leading to the application of more timely and effective management strategies.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Drosophila / physiology*
  • Ecological Parameter Monitoring / statistics & numerical data
  • Forecasting / methods
  • Fruit / parasitology*
  • Gardens / statistics & numerical data
  • Humidity
  • Insect Control
  • Introduced Species / statistics & numerical data
  • Life Cycle Stages / physiology
  • Linear Models
  • Models, Biological*
  • Prunus avium / parasitology*
  • Seasons*
  • Temperature
  • Wisconsin

Grants and funding

CG received funding for the project from the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade, and Consumer Protection Specialty Crop Block Grant #16-01. https://datcp.wi.gov/Pages/Homepage.aspx The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.