Accurate exposure estimate of the air pollutant PM2.5 is required to evaluate its health impacts in epidemiological studies, due to its adverse effects on human's respiratory and cardiovascular systems. However, traditional personal sampling is time and cost consuming. Thus, modeling techniques are needed to accurately predict the personal exposure level to PM2.5. In this study, a total of 117 older adults over 60 were recruited in Tianjin, a heavily polluted city in northern China, for indoor, outdoor and personal PM2.5 sampling. Eighteen variables which may increase the exposure level of older adults were recorded for artificial neural network (ANN) simulation. Four modeling techniques, including time-integrated activity modeling, Monte Carlo simulation, ANN modeling, and combined use of principal component analysis (PCA) and ANN model, were used to evaluate their ability for predicting real exposure values of PM2.5. The results of traditional time-weighted activity modeling showed the lowest correlation with measured values with R2 of 0.57 and 0.42 in winter and summer, respectively. For Monte Carlo simulation, high correlation was obtained (R2 of 0.93 and 0.92 in winter and summer, respectively) between percentiles of the predicted and the real exposure values. Compared with the simple ANN models, the combined use of PCA and ANN produced the most accurate results with R2 of 0.99 and RMSE lower than 15. Since the information of the input variables for the PCA-ANN model can be obtained from the questionnaire and fixed air quality monitoring sites, this technique shows a great potential in predicting personal exposure level to the air pollutant because no additional concentration measurement is needed.
Keywords: Artificial neural network; PM(2.5); Personal exposure; Principal component analysis.
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