About 1.8 million new cancer cases are estimated in the US in 2019 from which 50-85% might metastasize to the thoracic and lumbar spines. Subject-specific quantitative computed tomography-based finite element analysis (QCT/FEA) is a promising used tool to predict vertebral fracture properties. The aims of this study were twofold: First, to develop an optimized equation for the elastic modulus accounting for all input parameters in FE modeling of fracture properties. Second, to assess the effect of lesion size and location on the predicted fracture loads. An inverse QCT/FEA method was implemented to determine optimal coefficients for the modulus equation as a function of ash density. Lesions of 16 and 20 mm were then virtually located at the center, off-centered, anterior, and posterior regions of the vertebrae. A total of 6426 QCT/FEA models were run to optimize the coefficients and evaluate the effect of lesions on fracture properties. QCT/FEA predicted stiffness showed high correlations (50%) with the experimentally measured values. Compared to a 16 mm lesion size, a 20 mm lesion had a reduction in failure load of 55%, 57%, 52%, and 44% at the center, off-centered, anterior cortex, and pedicle, respectively (p < 0.001). Lesions affecting mostly trabecular bone showed the largest reduction in predicted failure loads (about 55%), and females presented weaker outcomes than males. An optimal elastic modulus equation resulted in accurate vertebral stiffness predictions. A deterioration of the trabecular bone due to the presence of a lesion highly affected the predicted fracture loads, and this reduction was significantly higher in females compared to males.
Keywords: QCT/FEA; Vertebral fracture; density-elastic modulus equation; lesion size; spine metastasis.