Serial Heart Rate Variability Measures for Risk Prediction of Septic Patients in the Emergency Department

Abstract

In this study, we used serial heart rate variability (HRV) measures over 2 hours to improve the prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality among septic patients in the emergency department (ED). We presented a generalizable methodology for processing and analysing HRV time series (HRVTS) data which may be noisy and incomplete. Feature sets were created from the HRVTS data of 162 patients with suspected sepsis using aggregation-based, deltabased and regression-based series-to-point transformations, and modelled over 100 random stratified splits. An optimized feature set comprising 12 selected HRVTS features performed better than baseline feature sets which only included patient demographics, vital signs and single time-point HRV measures taken at triage. This improved risk stratification approach could be used in the ED to identify high-risk septic patients for appropriate management and disposition.