Post-SARS tourist arrival recovery patterns: An analysis based on a catastrophe theory

Chi-Kuo Mao; Cherng G Ding; Hsiu-Yu Lee

doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2009.09.003

Post-SARS tourist arrival recovery patterns: An analysis based on a catastrophe theory

Tour Manag. 2010 Dec;31(6):855-861. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2009.09.003. Epub 2009 Oct 9.

Authors

Chi-Kuo Mao¹, Cherng G Ding¹, Hsiu-Yu Lee¹

Affiliation

¹ Institute of Business and Management, National Chiao Tung University, 118 Chung-Hsiao West Road, Section 1, Taipei, Taiwan.

Abstract

In 2003, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) ravaged many Asian countries. The outbreak of SARS caused a crisis in the tourism industry in many parts of Asia in that year. The purpose of this study is to examine and to compare the post-SARS recovery patterns of inbound arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and USA in Taiwan. Taking the cusp catastrophe model as its foundation, this study proposes a well-grounded approach to understanding the nature of the recovery processes and to explaining the difference between the recovery patterns displayed by arrivals from Japan and those from Hong Kong and USA. Implications regarding tourism promotion policies are drawn from the analysis.

Keywords: Cusp catastrophe system; Hysteresis effect; SARS; Threshold.