The forecasting of International Expo tourism using quantitative and qualitative techniques

Choong-Ki Lee; Hak-Jun Song; James W Mjelde

doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2008.02.007

The forecasting of International Expo tourism using quantitative and qualitative techniques

Tour Manag. 2008 Dec;29(6):1084-1098. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2008.02.007. Epub 2008 Apr 18.

Authors

Choong-Ki Lee¹, Hak-Jun Song², James W Mjelde³

Affiliations

¹ College of Hotel & Tourism, Kyunghee University, 1, Hoegi-dong, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 130-701, Korea.
² Department of Parks, Recreation and Tourism Management, Clemson University, 263 Lehotsky Hall Clemson University, SC 29634-0735, USA.
³ Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2124, USA.

Abstract

This study predicts the number of visitors to an international tourism Expo to be held in Korea in 2012, an unprecedented event for the host city. Forecasting demand for such a mega-event has received only limited attention in the literature. Unlike most studies forecasting international tourism demand, forecasting Expo demand involves using both quantitative forecasting models and qualitative technique because of data limitations. Combining quantitative techniques with willingness-to-visit (WTV) surveys predicts the Expo demand at 8.9 million visitors. In comparison using the Delphi method, experts predict Expo demand at 6.8 million visitors. For this study, the Delphi method provides more conservative estimates than estimates from combining quantitative techniques with WTV. Policy implications presented are directed toward Expo planners and practitioners in terms of demand and supply side, application of these results in the decision-making process, and future challenges surrounding demand forecasting.

Keywords: Delphi; Demand forecasting; Expo; Regression; Seasonal ARIMA intervention; Willingness-to-visit; Winters.