Severe influenza is associated with high morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the clinical outcomes of critically ill influenza patients. In this retrospective study, we enrolled critically ill adult patients with influenza at the Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital in Taiwan. We evaluated the demographic, clinical, and laboratory findings and examined whether any of these measurements correlated with mortality. We then created an event-based algorithm as a simple predictive tool using two variables with statistically significant associations with mortality. Between 2015 and 2018, 102 critically ill influenza patients (median age, 62 years) were assessed; among them, 41 (40.1%) patients died. Of the 94 patients who received oseltamivir therapy, 68 (72.3%) began taking oseltamivir 48 hours after the onset of illness. Of the 102 patients, the major influenza-associated complications were respiratory failure (97%), pneumonia (94.1%), acute kidney injury (65.7%), adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (51%), gastrointestinal bleeding (35.3%), and bacteremia (16.7%). In the multivariate regression model, high lactate levels, ARDS, acute kidney injury, and gastrointestinal bleeding were independent predictors of mortality in critically ill influenza patients. The optimal lactate level cutoff for predicting mortality was 3.7 mmol/L with an area under curve of 0.728. We constructed an event-associated algorithm that included lactate and ARDS. Fifteen (75%) of 20 patients with lactate levels 3.7 mmol/L and ARDS died, compared with only 1 (7.7%) of 13 patients with normal lactate levels and without ARDS. We identified clinical and laboratory predictors of mortality that could aid in the care of critically ill influenza patients. Identification of these prognostic markers could be improved to prioritize key examinations that might be useful in determining patient outcomes.
Keywords: acute respiratory distress syndrome; lactate; mortality; pneumonia; severe influenza.