Abstract
Several Italian towns are under lockdown to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. The level of transmission reduction required for physical distancing interventions to mitigate the epidemic is a crucial question. We show that very high adherence to community quarantine (total stay-home policy) and a small household size is necessary for curbing the outbreak in a locked-down town. The larger the household size and amount of time in the public, the longer the lockdown period needed.
Keywords:
COVID-19; Outbreak; SARS-CoV-2; Social distancing; coronavirus; isolation and quarantine.
MeSH terms
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Betacoronavirus
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COVID-19
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Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology
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Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control*
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Coronavirus Infections / transmission
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Coronavirus*
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Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control*
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Disease Transmission, Infectious / prevention & control*
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Humans
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Italy / epidemiology
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Pandemics / prevention & control*
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Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology
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Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control*
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Pneumonia, Viral / transmission
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Pneumonia, Viral / virology
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Quarantine*
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SARS-CoV-2
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Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / prevention & control
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Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / virology
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Time Factors