Only strict quarantine measures can curb the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Italy, 2020

Euro Surveill. 2020 Apr;25(13):2000280. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.13.2000280.

Abstract

Several Italian towns are under lockdown to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. The level of transmission reduction required for physical distancing interventions to mitigate the epidemic is a crucial question. We show that very high adherence to community quarantine (total stay-home policy) and a small household size is necessary for curbing the outbreak in a locked-down town. The larger the household size and amount of time in the public, the longer the lockdown period needed.

Keywords: COVID-19; Outbreak; SARS-CoV-2; Social distancing; coronavirus; isolation and quarantine.

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission
  • Coronavirus*
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control*
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious / prevention & control*
  • Humans
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Pandemics / prevention & control*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology
  • Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission
  • Pneumonia, Viral / virology
  • Quarantine*
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / prevention & control
  • Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / virology
  • Time Factors