Statistical inference in matched case-control studies of recurrent events

Abstract

Background: The concurrent sampling design was developed for case-control studies of recurrent events. It involves matching for time. Standard conditional logistic-regression (CLR) analysis ignores the dependence among recurrent events. Existing methods for clustered observations for CLR do not fit the complex data structure arising from the concurrent sampling design.

Methods: We propose to break the matches, apply unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for time in quintiles and residual time within each quintile, and use a robust standard error for observations clustered within persons. We conducted extensive simulation to evaluate this approach and compared it with methods based on CLR. We analysed data from a study of childhood pneumonia to illustrate the methods.

Results: The proposed method and CLR methods gave very similar point estimates of association and showed little bias. The proposed method produced confidence intervals that achieved the target level of coverage probability, whereas the CLR methods did not, except when disease incidence was low.

Conclusions: The proposed method is suitable for the analysis of case-control studies with recurrent events.

Keywords: Concurrent design; incidence density sampling; logistic regression; matched case–control study.