Tree-ring records provide global high-resolution information on tree-species responses to global change, forest carbon and water dynamics, and past climate variability and extremes. The underlying assumption is a stationary (time-stable), quasi-linear relationship between tree growth and environment, which however conflicts with basic ecological and evolutionary theory. Indeed, our global assessment of the relevant tree-ring literature demonstrates non-stationarity in the majority of tested cases, not limited to specific proxies, environmental parameters, regions or species. Non-stationarity likely represents the general nature of the relationship between tree-growth proxies and environment. Studies assuming stationarity however score two times more citations influencing other fields of science and the science-policy interface. To reconcile ecological reality with the application of tree-ring proxies for climate or environmental estimates, we provide a clarification of the stationarity concept, propose a simple confidence framework for the re-evaluation of existing studies and recommend the use of a new statistical tool to detect non-stationarity in tree-ring proxies. Our contribution is meant to stimulate and facilitate discussion in light of our results to help increase confidence in tree-ring-based climate and environmental estimates for science, the public and policymakers.
Keywords: climate reconstruction; dendroclimatology; model calibration; non-stationarity; proxy calibration; tree-rings.
© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.