Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs

Zhiwei Xu; Hilary Bambrick; Francesca D Frentiu; Gregor Devine; Laith Yakob; Gail Williams; Wenbiao Hu

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008118

Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020 Mar 2;14(3):e0008118. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008118. eCollection 2020 Mar.

Authors

Zhiwei Xu^{1

2}, Hilary Bambrick^{1

2}, Francesca D Frentiu³, Gregor Devine⁴, Laith Yakob⁵, Gail Williams⁶, Wenbiao Hu^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
² Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
³ School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
⁴ Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia.
⁵ Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
⁶ School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.

Abstract

Background: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios.

Methods: Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue.

Results: Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future.

Conclusions: Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Systematic Review

MeSH terms

Climate Change*
Cost of Illness
Dengue / epidemiology*
Dengue / transmission*
Disease Transmission, Infectious*
Environmental Exposure*
Humans
Incidence
Mosquito Vectors / growth & development*
Mosquito Vectors / radiation effects
Prevalence
Topography, Medical

Grants and funding

This study was supported by National Health and Medical Research Council (APP 1138622_Hu). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.