The interplay of haze characteristics on mortality in the Pearl River Delta of China

Abstract

To estimate the mortality risk from haze and the modifying effects by three characteristics of haze (intensity, duration and timing), data on haze and mortality in the Pearl River Delta region from 2013 to 2016 were collected. We first estimated mortality risk during haze days compared with non-haze days. Then we classified haze into several categories by considering one or any two of the three haze characteristics together, and further calculated the mortality risks separately. The mortality risk increased 5.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 3.1%-6.9%) during hazy days compared with non-haze days, with larger effect for the elderly ≥ 85 years old (Excess risk (ER): 8.7%, 95% CI: 3.9%-13.6%) than other age groups. Mortality risk increased in longer haze (ER: 4.4%, 95% CI: 2.9%-6.0%) compared with shorter haze (ER: 1.9%, 95% CI: 0.7%-3.2%). The greatest effect of any two of haze characteristics was observed when haze was intense and long (ER: 4.8%, 95% CI: 3.0%-6.6%). Our study indicates that haze significantly increased mortality risk in the Pearl River Delta. The health effects of haze may be under-estimated when using a single air pollutant concentration during haze periods to assess health risk of haze events. The haze intensity, duration, and time of occurrence should be accounted for in appropriate risk assessment of haze.

Keywords: Air pollution; China; Haze; Human health; Mortality.