Modelling and simulating Chikungunya spread with an unstructured triangular cellular automata

Gerardo Ortigoza; Fred Brauer; Iris Neri

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.005

Modelling and simulating Chikungunya spread with an unstructured triangular cellular automata

Infect Dis Model. 2020 Jan 3:5:197-220. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.005. eCollection 2020.

Authors

Gerardo Ortigoza¹, Fred Brauer², Iris Neri³

Affiliations

¹ Facultad de Ingeniería,Universidad Veracruzana, Boca Del Río, Ver, Mexico.
² Mathematics Department, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C, Canada.
³ Maestría en Gestión Integrada de Cuencas, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Mexico.

Abstract

In this work we propose a mathematical model to simulate Chikungunya spread; the spread model is implemented in a C++ cellular automata code defined on unstructured triangular grids and space visualizations are performed with Python. In order to simulate the time space spread of the Chikungunya diseases we include assumptions such as: heterogeneous human and vector densities, population mobility, geographically localized points of infection using geographical information systems, changes in the probabilities of infection, extrinsic incubation and mosquito death rate due to environmental variables. Numerical experiments reproduce the qualitative behavior of diseases spread and provide an insight to develop strategies to prevent the diseases spread.

Keywords: Cellular automata; Chikungunya spread; Unstructured triangular grids.