Identification of Colombian coffee price dynamics

Chaos. 2020 Jan;30(1):013145. doi: 10.1063/1.5119857.

Abstract

The daily Colombian coffee price is a chaotic signal that has emerged from a complex economic system. This work proposes to identify its dynamics by means of two models: a single multiscroll Chua system and the coupling of two of these systems. Models are fine-tuned through an artificial bee colony optimization algorithm. Results show that this approach can reconstruct the price signal in terms of several statistics and points out a way for its long-term forecasting.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms*
  • Coffee / economics*
  • Colombia
  • Commerce / economics*
  • Computer Simulation*
  • Models, Economic*
  • Nonlinear Dynamics

Substances

  • Coffee