Purpose: Understanding secular trends of thyroid cancer is critical to plan strategies for cancer prevention and control. Our aim was to estimate the incidence and mortality trends of thyroid cancer in China during 2005-2015.
Methods: A retrospective cohort evaluation of thyroid cancer cases and deaths during 2005-2015 was performed using population-based data from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. The incidence and mortality rates of thyroid cancer were stratified by gender, age group (0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14…80-84, 85-), and area (urban or rural). A Joinpoint regression model was used to examine secular trends.
Results: In China, the age-standardized incidence was 3.21/105 in 2005, and increased to 9.61/105 in 2015. Besides, a significant increase incidence rate was observed with the average annual percent change (AAPC) of 12.4% (95% CI: 10.5%-14.4%) in the period 2005-2015. The age-standardized mortality was 0.30/105 in 2005 and 0.35/105 in 2015, and the AAPC was 2.9% (95% CI: 1.3%-4.5%). For both incidence and mortality, the rates of thyroid cancer were much higher in females than in males, and in urban areas rather than rural areas; however, the rates of increasing trends showed no significant differences. With respect to the highest age-specific rates, it appeared in the age group of 50-54 years old for incidence and in the age group of 80-84 years old for mortality. Notably, the rate of increasing incidence trend was lower in older age groups, especially for people aged 70-79 years old.
Conclusion: A rapid increase in incidence and a moderate increase in mortality of thyroid cancer were observed from 2005 to 2015 in our study. Effective measures and tailored programs should be taken to curb the growth trend and reduce the disease burden.
Keywords: China; Incidence; Joinpoint; Mortality; Thyroid cancer; Trends.