Fire regime dynamics in mainland Spain. Part 2: A near-future prospective of fire activity

Adrián Jiménez-Ruano; Juan de la Riva Fernández; Marcos Rodrigues

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135842

Fire regime dynamics in mainland Spain. Part 2: A near-future prospective of fire activity

Sci Total Environ. 2020 Feb 25:705:135842. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135842. Epub 2019 Nov 29.

Authors

Adrián Jiménez-Ruano¹, Juan de la Riva Fernández², Marcos Rodrigues³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geography and Land Management, Pedro Cerbuna 12, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain; GEOFOREST Group, University Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (IUCA), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain. Electronic address: jimenez@unizar.es.
² Department of Geography and Land Management, Pedro Cerbuna 12, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain; GEOFOREST Group, University Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (IUCA), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain.
³ GEOFOREST Group, University Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (IUCA), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain; Department of Agriculture and Forest Engineering, University of Lleida, Alcalde Rovira Roure 191, 25198, Lleida, Spain; Joint Research Unit AGROTECNIO-CTFC, Crta. Sant Llorenç de Morunys, km 2, 25280, Solsona, Lleida, Spain.

PMID: 31972918
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135842

Abstract

The current research belongs to a series of two manuscripts aiming at describing spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime and its drivers in Spain. In this work, we present the first attempt to produce a spatial-temporal delimitation of homogeneous fire regime zones in Spain providing insights into the near future. The analyses were based on historical fire records; leveraging autoregressive models to project fire features into the near future. We evaluated the spatial extent of homogenous fire regime zones in three different periods: past (1974-1994), current (1995-2015) and future (2016-2036). To do so, we applied Principal Component Analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering to identify zones of fire regime on the basis of the spatial and temporal arrangement of their main fire features: number of fires, burned area, burnt area from natural-caused fires, incidence of large fires (> 100 ha) and seasonality. Clusters of fire regime were trained in the current period, being later projected into the past and future periods using of k-Nearest Neighbor classification. ARIMA modeling forecasted a shrinkage in all fire features except natural-caused fires that remained stable. Overall, we detected a transition from significant fire incidence in the past towards a situation with moderate impact of fires in the near future. The Mediterranean coast experienced the largest decline in fire activity with few locations maintaining the historical levels of occurrence of large fires. On the other hand, the Northwestern end of Spain depicted a progression towards winter fire activity while still linked to large fires. This pattern persisted in the near future along the northern coast, whereas an intermix of minor fire progression and regression was expected thorough the hinterlands and the Mediterranean.

Keywords: ARIMA; Fire features; Fire regime; Forest fires; Future projection; Suppression policy.