Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes

Thomas Frederikse; Maya K Buchanan; Erwin Lambert; Robert E Kopp; Michael Oppenheimer; D J Rasmussen; Roderik S W van de Wal

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6

Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes

Nat Commun. 2020 Jan 20;11(1):390. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6.

Authors

Thomas Frederikse^{1

2}, Maya K Buchanan³, Erwin Lambert⁴, Robert E Kopp⁵, Michael Oppenheimer⁶, D J Rasmussen⁷, Roderik S W van de Wal^{4

8}

Affiliations

¹ Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, California, CA, 91101, USA. thomas.frederikse@jpl.nasa.gov.
² Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80011, 3508TA, Utrecht, The Netherlands. thomas.frederikse@jpl.nasa.gov.
³ Climate Central, One Palmer Square, Suite 402, Princeton, 08542, NJ, USA.
⁴ Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80011, 3508TA, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
⁵ Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA.
⁶ Department of Geosciences and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Princeton University, Robertson Hall, Princeton, NJ, 08544-1013, USA.
⁷ Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Princeton University, Robertson Hall, Princeton, NJ, 08544-1013, USA.
⁸ Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80115, 3508TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

Abstract

Uncertainties in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) melt propagate into uncertainties in projected mean sea-level (MSL) changes and extreme sea-level (ESL) events. Here we quantify the impact of RCP scenarios and AIS contributions on 21st-century ESL changes at tide-gauge sites across the globe using extreme-value statistics. We find that even under RCP2.6, almost half of the sites could be exposed annually to a present-day 100-year ESL event by 2050. Most tropical sites face large increases in ESL events earlier and for scenarios with smaller MSL changes than extratropical sites. Strong emission reductions lower the probability of large ESL changes but due to AIS uncertainties, cannot fully eliminate the probability that large increases in frequencies of ESL events will occur. Under RCP8.5 and rapid AIS mass loss, many tropical sites, including low-lying islands face a MSL rise by 2100 that exceeds the present-day 100-year event level.

Publication types

Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't