[Responses of potential suitable area of Paris verticillata to climate change and its dominant climate factors]

Abstract

Prediction of the potential distribution of species based on the data of its current distribution in combination with climatic variables is important for understanding species evolution and reasonable conservation. Based on 220 distribution sites in China and 12 low-correlation climatic variables, we analyzed the potential distribution of Paris verticillata at present and future (2050s and 2070s) using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS program. Further, we analyzed the dominant driving factors for its geographic distribution. The results showed that the area under the curve indices (AUC) was 0.940, with high prediction accuracy. The potential suitable regions of P. verticillata were mainly distributed in the Greater Xing'an Mountains, the Xiao Xing'an Mountains, the Changbai Mountains, the Qinling-Daba Mountains, Hebei, Shanxi and north Shandong under current climate scenario. Those regions accounted for 18.1% of the total suitable area in the country, of which the highly suitable areas accounted for 7.0% and the lowly suitable area 11.1%. The total suitable areas of P. verticillata in the 2050s and 2070s would decline under the climate change scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. The highly suitable area would decline, but the lowly suitable area would increase. With the global climate change, both the range and the geometric center of its distribution would gradually spread to higher altitude in the northeast. The cumulative contributions of four dominant factors reached as high as 89.2%, namely, precipitation of wettest month, mean annual temperature, isothermality, and precipitation of January. Their appropriate ranges were 100-275 mm, -0.1-16 ℃, 21-35 and 3-14 mm, respectively.

Keywords: MaxEnt model; Paris verticillata; climate change; dominant climate factor; potential suitable area.