Projecting China's future water footprint under the shared socio-economic pathways

Abstract

Increasing water scarcity in China is further exacerbated by the rapid socio-economic development and uneven spatial distribution of water resources. Current studies on water footprint have mainly focused on historical accounting and trend analysis at the provincial scale. However, a comprehensive exploration of future water footprint would be vital to a better understanding of future water shortage challenges, and more importantly, would allow the mitigation of water scarcity and inequal water distribution. In this paper, we present an approach to project the future water footprint of China at a fine resolution (0.125 arc-degree) under the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenario framework, which described five future alternative socio-economic development pathways over the 21st century. We first simulated the future spatial patterns of built-up land using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model and derived the future population growth and urbanization rate from the population projection provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Then future water footprint was projected according a log-transformed linear regression calibrated with historical data during 2007-2012. We found that the total volume of China's water footprint will increase significantly in the future under the SSP1, SSP4 and SSP5 scenarios, reaching up to nearly 400 billion m³ in 2050, equivalent to almost 40% increase compared to that in 2010. The spatial patterns of future water footprint show dramatic increase (up to 100-130%) in the eastern provinces (Shandong, Henan, and Hebei), and slight decrease were found in the western provinces (Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Qinghai). In addition, the future water footprints were found to share very similar spatial patterns at local pixel scale among different SSP scenarios in three of the largest metropolitan areas of China (Beijing-Hebei-Tianjin, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta). These findings provide extensive knowledge of the future water footprint and suggest a more severe water scarcity in the future from a consumption-oriented perspective. More effective water management policies are urgently needed to mitigate future water resource scarcity and inequality.

Keywords: Land use simulation; MRIO model; Shared socio-economic pathways; Water footprint.