Measuring Psychological Change and Predicting Recidivism Following the Swedish One-to-One Program

Anne H Berman; Mikael Gajecki; Per Morien; Philip Priestley

doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00811

Measuring Psychological Change and Predicting Recidivism Following the Swedish One-to-One Program

Front Psychiatry. 2019 Nov 29:10:811. doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00811. eCollection 2019.

Authors

Anne H Berman^{1

2

3}, Mikael Gajecki^{1

2

3}, Per Morien⁴, Philip Priestley⁵

Affiliations

¹ Center for Psychiatry Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
² Stockholm Health Care Services, Stockholm County Council, Stockholm, Sweden.
³ Stockholm Center for Dependency Disorders, Stockholm, Sweden.
⁴ Department of Psychology, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
⁵ Retired, Bristol, United Kingdom.

Abstract

The One-to-One program aims to reduce criminal recidivism among prisoners shortly awaiting release, and among probationers. Of 1,484 program participants in Sweden, 776 contained adequate data for analysis. Pre- and post-program scores were available for the Alternative Thinking Test, Levenson's Locus of Control Scale, Skill Survey, Citizen Scale, and Problem Checklist, all areas addressed in the program. This study examined predictive properties of test scores and background characteristics regarding recidivism, as well as differences between sub-groups. All post-tests indicated pro-social changes. Older participants were more likely to complete the program. The most potent predictor for non-recidivism was program completion, with non-completers 64% more likely to re-offend. Significant associations occurred between recidivism and the tests measuring skill improvement over time, chance locus of control pre- and post-program, and attitudes and values (Citizen Scale), partly supporting the theory behind the program.

Keywords: criminal justice; individual psychological intervention; naturalistic study; prison; probation; psychological tests; recidivism.